Modification of the Lanchester model taking into account directed strikes and noise

Abstract

This work examines a modification of a spatially distributed Lanchester model, which describes an antagonistic game between two groups in a two-dimensional domain. The model originally emerged in 1916 to describe combat scenarios between two military forces, characterizing events of the First World War. The model accounts for directed strikes, defined by a velocity vector, and the initial displacement of troop concentrations using a step function. The system includes diffusion terms, nonlinear reactions, Gaussian white noise, and a topographic obstacle (a lake of arbitrary shape) that restricts troop movement. The numerical solution is implemented using the finite element method based on domain triangulation to handle irregular domains. The simulation results demonstrate an increase in spatial heterogeneity under the influence of noise and the obstacle, as well as a significant impact of directed movement and initial displacement on conflict dynamics. Stability analysis confirms the system’s stability, including an analysis specific to the finite element method. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters and computational error estimation have been added. Visualization illustrates the evolution of troop densities over time. The advantages of the proposed approach over existing methods include better handling of irregular domains and model scalability.